SECTORIAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF BUHARINOMICS: A CANONICAL APPROACH

Abstract

This study assesses the impact of the, Buharis microeconomic management policiesand actions on the Nigerian economy from 2015 to 2023:Q2. The study takes asectorial perspective (break-down of GDP rather than aggregated) while canonicalcorrelation analysis is conducted on five independent variables: money supply;(M2), FDI. The dependent variables are, external borrowing, domestic debt and FDIand exchange rate as a moderating sectorial GDP output: agriculture, industry(manufacturing), building & construction, trade and services. Analyses reveal that only the exchange rate (moderating variable); has significant impact on Nigeriasectorial GDP. The impacts are on Industry, 𝛽=-1.8675; P=<.001. Trade, 𝛽=-21.8675; P=<.001, and the Service sector, 𝛽=4.8654; P=.016. As can be gleanedfrom the statistics; only the impact of exchange rate on the services sector is positive;while on Trade and Industry the impacts are negative. The study therefore concludesthat; on an unbiased, non-presumptive but empirically based assessment;buharinomics has no positive growth impact on the Nigerian economy in its eight-year period.